Donald Trump has experienced a major shift in one of the most significant predictors of electoral success

Trump at a campaign rally.

An interesting data point from a new poll Wednesday suggests that Donald Trump's presidential campaign arc is now more closely mirroring that of a traditional front-runner, rather than that of an insurgent fad.

The ABC/Washington Post poll found that a plurality of likely Republican primary voters now believe Trump will be their party's nominee.

According to the poll, 43% of registered GOP voters nationally believe that Trump has the greatest chance of winning the nomination. His closest competitors in the poll are retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who was the choice of 16% of GOP voters, and former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, who had 12%.

When the Post/ABC survey last asked the question, in March, Trump did not register. Bush received 35% of the vote then, 25 points ahead of his next-closest competitor, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

The shift could be significant. A 2012 study, pointed to by The New York Times' David Leonhardt, found that measuring who voters think will win is actually a much better indicator of the eventual winner of an election than gauging who has the most voter support.

Most polling experts and political pundits have written off Trump's consistently large leads among Republicans in every major poll for more than three months.

Analysts have cited historical precedents that show that unconventional presidential candidates like Trump, who lacks the backing of the party establishment and experience running in national political contests, struggle to win even if they experience a groundswell of support in the early stages of the nomination process.